![]() ![]() There is some relationship to particular patterns of ethnic diversity.Ī civil war doubles the risk of another civil war. All too often the really disadvantaged are in no position to rebel: they just suffer quietly.” Little relationship has been found between the risk of civil war and political repression or intergroup hatreds or income inequality or colonial history. “Rebels usually have something to complain about, and if they don’t they make it up. ![]() Sometimes rebel movements get finances from resource exporters in return for future deals. When the economy is weak the state is weak and rebellion is easier. Low income means poverty and low growth means hopelessness and available young men. Civil war reduces income and low income increases the risk of civil war. ![]() The rest of this post summarises the four poverty traps… The Conflict Trapħ3% of people in the bottom billion countries are in a civil war or have recently been through one. If you read it and look at the index, you’ll find that the references mostly point to Collier’s previous research, with each prior individual study citing several pieces of research. ![]() It’s worth noting that this theory is based on extensive quantitative research carried out by Collier over a 30 year period. This is a relatively new theory of underdevelopment summarised by Paul Collier in a recent book published in 2008: The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can be Done About It. ![]()
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